Off-Plan vs Ready Property: Understanding the Data
Why off-plan and ready-property transactions must be analysed separately, what off-plan share really measures, and how to avoid the common errors.
Off-plan and ready-property sales appear in the same dataset and look like the same kind of record. They are not, and treating them as interchangeable is one of the fastest ways to produce a wrong number.
Different products, different prices
An off-plan buyer purchases a property that does not yet exist, typically on a staged payment plan, with delivery expected at a future date. A ready-property buyer purchases existing stock that can be occupied or let immediately.
Those differences are priced. Payment terms have financial value. Delivery timing carries risk. The absence of rental income between purchase and handover is a real cost. All of it shows up in what buyers will pay, which means an off-plan price and a ready price for a nominally similar unit are not measuring the same thing.
What off-plan share measures — and does not
Off-plan share is the proportion of recorded transactions in a period classified as off-plan. It is a useful indicator of where activity is concentrated, and it tends to rise when new launch activity is strong.
It is not a measure of stock. A high off-plan share means most of that period’s recorded transactions were in projects not yet delivered — not that most housing in the city is unbuilt. Reading an activity-mix statistic as a stock statistic is a common and consequential mistake.
Where the pipeline comes in
Off-plan sales tell you about present demand for future product. Registered project records tell you how much of that future product is expected, and when.
Read together, they are considerably more informative. Strong off-plan activity in a community with a large pipeline delivering in the same window describes a different situation from strong off-plan activity where the pipeline is thin — even if the off-plan share is identical.
The errors to avoid
- Using off-plan transaction prices as evidence of ready-property value, or the reverse.
- Reading a high off-plan share as evidence about the composition of existing stock.
- Adding announced projects to completed units to produce a "total supply" figure.
- Treating expected delivery dates as fixed — slippage is normal across the industry.
This article explains method rather than forecasting the market. For definitions and how measures are computed, see our data methodology and data coverage.